SM Energy Valuation

SM Stock  USD 21.46  0.45  2.14%   
At this time, the company appears to be undervalued. SM Energy owns a latest Real Value of $25.69 per share. The recent price of the company is $21.46. Our model measures the value of SM Energy from examining the company fundamentals such as Return On Equity of 0.17, current valuation of 7.77 B, and Profit Margin of 0.23 % as well as evaluating its technical indicators and probability of bankruptcy. Key fundamental drivers impacting SM Energy's valuation include:
Price Book
1.1071
Enterprise Value
7.8 B
Enterprise Value Ebitda
3.4447
Price Sales
1.6477
Forward PE
11.0011
Undervalued
Today
21.46
Please note that SM Energy's price fluctuation is very steady at this time. Calculation of the real value of SM Energy is based on 3 months time horizon. Increasing SM Energy's time horizon generally increases the accuracy of value calculation and significantly improves the predictive power of the methodology used.
The fair value of the SM Energy stock is determined by what a typical buyer is willing to pay for full or partial control of SM Energy Co. Since SM Energy is currently traded on the exchange, buyers and sellers on that exchange determine the market value of SM Energy Stock. However, SM Energy's intrinsic value may or may not be the same as its current market price, in which case there is an opportunity to profit from the mispricing, assuming the market price will eventually merge with its intrinsic value.
Historical Market  21.46 Real  25.69 Target  30.75 Hype  21.55
The intrinsic value of SM Energy's stock can be calculated using various methods such as discounted cash flow analysis, price-to-earnings ratio, or price-to-book ratio. That value may differ from its current market price, which is determined by supply and demand factors such as investor sentiment, market trends, news, and other external factors that may influence SM Energy's stock price. It is important to note that the real value of any stock may change over time based on changes in the company's performance.
25.69
Real Value
28.24
Upside
Estimating the potential upside or downside of SM Energy Co helps investors to forecast how SM Energy stock's addition to their portfolios will impact the overall performance. We also use other valuation drivers to help us estimate the true value of SM Energy more accurately as focusing exclusively on SM Energy's fundamentals will not take into account other important factors:
Earnings
Estimates
LowProjectedHigh
0.580.871.22
Details
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
19.0021.5524.10
Details
14 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
27.9830.7534.13
Details
Traditionally, analysts and sophisticated investors use multiple methods for valuing a cash-flow-generating entity or its stock. For example, some money managers use SM Energy's intrinsic value based on its ongoing forecasts of SM Energy's financial statements. In contrast, other private, professional wealth advisors use a multiplier approach by looking to relative value analysis against SM Energy's closest peers.

SM Energy Cash

0.0

SM Energy Total Value Analysis

SM Energy Co is at this time expected to have takeover value of 7.77 B with market capitalization of 5.22 B, debt of 2.84 B, and cash on hands of 0. Please note that takeover value may be misleading and is a subject to accounting mistakes. We encourage investors to methodically examine all of the SM Energy fundamentals before making investment evaluation based on enterprise value of the company

SM Energy Investor Information

About 49.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.11. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. SM Energy recorded earning per share (EPS) of 6.33. The entity last dividend was issued on the 26th of December 2025. The firm had 2:1 split on the 1st of April 2005. Based on the key measurements obtained from SM Energy's financial statements, SM Energy Co is doing better financially today then in previous quarter. It has a moderate risk of reporting better financial numbers in March.
Current ValueLast YearChange From Last Year 10 Year Trend
Total Cash From Operating Activities2.2 BB
Sufficiently Up
Slightly volatile

SM Energy Asset Utilization

The asset utilization indicator refers to the revenue earned for every dollar of assets a company currently reports. SM Energy has an asset utilization ratio of 31.15 percent. This suggests that the Company is making $0.31 for each dollar of assets. An increasing asset utilization means that SM Energy Co is more efficient with each dollar of assets it utilizes for everyday operations.
 
Oil Shock
 
Dot-com Bubble
 
Housing Crash
 
Credit Downgrade
 
Yuan Drop
 
Covid
 
Interest Hikes

SM Energy Profitability Analysis

Based on the key profitability measurements obtained from SM Energy's financial statements, SM Energy Co is performing exceptionally good at this time. It has a great risk to showcase excellent profitability results in March. Profitability indicators assess SM Energy's ability to earn profits and add value for shareholders.
 
Net Income  
First Reported
1990-03-31
Previous Quarter
201.7 M
Current Value
155.1 M
Quarterly Volatility
124.9 M
 
Oil Shock
 
Dot-com Bubble
 
Housing Crash
 
Credit Downgrade
 
Yuan Drop
 
Covid
 
Interest Hikes
As of the 13th of February 2026, Gross Profit is likely to grow to about 1.5 B. Also, Pretax Profit Margin is likely to grow to 0.44
For SM Energy profitability analysis, we use financial ratios and fundamental drivers that measure the ability of SM Energy to generate income relative to revenue, assets, operating costs, and current equity. These fundamental indicators attest to how well SM Energy utilizes its assets to generate profit and value for its shareholders. The profitability module also shows relationships between SM Energy's most relevant fundamental drivers. It provides multiple suggestions of what could affect the performance of SM Energy over time as well as its relative position and ranking within its peers.

SM Energy Earnings per Share Projection vs Actual

The next projected EPS of SM Energy is estimated to be 0.87285 with future projections ranging from a low of 0.5825 to a high of 1.22. SM Energy's most recent 12-month trailing earnings per share (EPS TTM) is at 6.33. Please be aware that the consensus of earnings estimates for SM Energy Co is based on EPS before non-recurring items and includes expenses related to employee stock options.
 
Dot-com Bubble
 
Housing Crash
 
Credit Downgrade
 
Yuan Drop
 
Covid
 
Interest Hikes
SM Energy is projected to generate 0.87285 in earnings per share on the 31st of December 2026. SM Energy earnings estimates show analyst consensus about projected SM Energy EPS (Earning Per Share). It derives the highest and the lowest estimates based on SM Energy's historical volatility. Many public companies, such as SM Energy, manage the perception of their earnings on a regular basis to make sure that analyst estimates are accurate. Future earnings calculations are also an essential input when attempting to value a firm.

SM Energy Earnings Estimation Breakdown

The calculation of SM Energy's earning per share is based on the data from the past 12 consecutive months, used for reporting the company's financial figures. The next projected EPS of SM Energy is estimated to be 0.87285 with the future projection ranging from a low of 0.5825 to a high of 1.22. Please be aware that this consensus of annual earnings estimates for SM Energy Co is based on EPS before non-recurring items and includes expenses related to employee stock options.
Last Reported EPS
0.0
0.58
Lowest
Expected EPS
0.87285
1.22
Highest

SM Energy Earnings Projection Consensus

Suppose the current estimates of SM Energy's value are higher than the current market price of the SM Energy stock. In this case, investors may conclude that SM Energy is overpriced and will exhibit bullish sentiment. On the other hand, if the present value is lower than the stock price, analysts may conclude that the market undervalues the equity. These scenarios may suggest that the market is not as efficient as it should be at the estimation time, and SM Energy's stock will quickly adjusts to the new information provided by the consensus estimate.
Number of AnalystsHistorical AccuracyLast Reported EPSEstimated EPS for 31st of December 2026Current EPS (TTM)
1385.54%
0.0
0.87285
6.33

SM Energy Ownership Allocation

SM Energy secures a total of 238.26 Million outstanding shares. 30% of SM Energy outstanding shares are owned by institutions. Institutional investors are typically referred to investors that purchase positions in a given stock to benefit from reduced commissions. Hence, institutional investors are subject to different rules and regulations than regular investors. Please look out for any change in current institutional holding as this could mean something significant has changed at the company or is about to change. Please note that no matter how many assets the company retains, if the real value of the company is less than the current market value, you may not be able to make money on it.

SM Energy Profitability Analysis

The company generated the yearly revenue of 2.67 B. Reported Net Income was 770.29 M with gross profit of 2.44 B.

SM Energy Past Distributions to stockholders

About SM Energy Valuation

We use absolute and relative valuation methodologies to arrive at the intrinsic value of SM Energy Co. In general, an absolute valuation paradigm, as applied to this company, attempts to find the value of SM Energy based exclusively on its fundamental and basic technical indicators. By analyzing SM Energy's financials, quarterly and monthly indicators, and their related drivers, we attempt to find the most accurate representation of SM Energy's intrinsic value. As compared to an absolute model, our relative valuation model uses a comparative analysis of SM Energy. We calculate exposure to SM Energy's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, and relevant financial multiples and ratios and then compare them to those of SM Energy's related companies.
Last ReportedProjected for Next Year
Gross Profit1.4 B1.5 B
Pretax Profit Margin 0.42  0.44 
Operating Profit Margin 0.46  0.49 
Net Profit Margin 0.33  0.35 
Gross Profit Margin 0.46  0.53 
SM Energy's stock price is the clearest measure of market expectations about its performance. Without stock valuation, investors cannot independently discern whether SM Energy's value is low or high relative to the company's performance and growth projections. Determining the market value of SM Energy can be done in different ways, such as multiplying its stock price by its outstanding shares.
A single share of SM Energy represents a small ownership stake in the entity. As a stockholder of SM Energy, your percentage of company ownership is determined by dividing the number of shares you own by the total number of shares outstanding and then multiplying that amount by 100. Owning stock in a company generally confers both corporate voting rights and income from any dividends paid to the stock owner.

SM Energy Dividends Analysis For Valuation

At this time, SM Energy's Dividends Paid is very stable compared to the past year. As of the 13th of February 2026, Dividend Paid And Capex Coverage Ratio is likely to grow to 1.01, while Dividend Yield is likely to drop 0.01. . At this time, SM Energy's Retained Earnings are very stable compared to the past year. As of the 13th of February 2026, Earnings Yield is likely to grow to 0.21, while Retained Earnings Total Equity is likely to drop about 846.1 M.
Last ReportedProjected for Next Year
Dividends Paid97.8 M102.7 M
Dividend Yield 0.02  0.01 
Dividend Payout Ratio 0.13  0.12 
Dividend Paid And Capex Coverage Ratio 0.59  1.01 
There are various types of dividends SM Energy can pay to its shareholders, and the actual value of the dividend is determined on a per-share basis. It is to be paid equally to all of SM Energy shareholders on a specific date, known as the payable date. The cash dividend is the most common type of dividend payment - it is the payment of actual cash from SM Energy Co directly to its shareholders. There are other types of dividends that companies can issue, such as stock dividends or asset dividends. When SM Energy pays a dividend, it has no impact on its enterprise value. It does, however, lowers the Equity Value of SM Energy by the value of the dividends paid out.

SM Energy Growth Indicators

Investing in growth stocks can be very risky. If the company such as SM Energy does not do well, investors take a loss on the stock when it is time to sell. Also, because growth stocks typically do not pay dividends, the only opportunity an investor has to make money on their investment is when they eventually sell their shares.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding115.5 M
Quarterly Earnings Growth Y O Y-0.354
Forward Price Earnings11.0011

SM Energy Current Valuation Indicators

SM Energy's valuation analysis is a process of estimating the intrinsic value of all assets and outstanding equities. There are different methodologies and models we use to develop the final SM Energy's valuation. The techniques such as discounted cash flow and fundamental indicators such as book value per share or market capitalization are well known and widely used across most financial advisers and money managers.
Valuations are an essential part of business, for companies themselves, but also for investors. For companies, such as SM Energy, valuations can help measure their progress and success and can help them track their performance in the market compared to others. In addition, investors can use SM Energy's valuations to help determine the worth of potential investments. They can do this by using data and information made public by a company. Regardless of who the valuation is for, it essentially describes SM Energy's worth.
Check out World Market Map to better understand how to build diversified portfolios, which includes a position in SM Energy Co. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in state.
You can also try the Performance Analysis module to check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation.
Will Oil & Gas Exploration & Production sector continue expanding? Could SM Energy diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of SM Energy. If investors know SM Energy will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every SM Energy data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.35)
Dividend Share
0.8
Earnings Share
6.33
Revenue Per Share
27.645
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.267
SM Energy's market price often diverges from its book value, the accounting figure shown on SM Energy's balance sheet. Smart investors calculate SM Energy's intrinsic value - its true economic worth - which may differ significantly from both market price and book value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Since SM Energy's trading price responds to investor sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and market psychology, it can swing far from fundamental value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between SM Energy's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if SM Energy is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, SM Energy's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.